Description

This analysis provides a forecast of TRB prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-02-02 29.792162 35.431614 41.617183 48.875165 57.126641 66.184064 76.845245
2025-02-09 21.870810 29.444624 38.570484 50.240724 64.621455 81.610411 103.032680
2025-02-16 17.240507 25.593676 36.414767 51.167071 70.429164 94.380293 126.024435
2025-02-23 13.770335 22.307005 34.090877 51.055263 74.295369 104.417291 145.717228
2025-03-02 10.953536 19.287054 31.496926 49.972699 76.393584 111.906675 162.179392
2025-03-09 9.037202 17.194228 29.814094 49.778352 79.419549 120.525884 180.312648
2025-03-16 6.956357 14.410304 26.640417 46.917196 78.214309 123.020089 189.983337
2025-03-23 6.121266 13.566791 26.357198 48.337918 83.270298 134.473920 212.538556
2025-03-30 5.057238 12.091560 24.804679 47.519617 84.761638 140.724768 227.837748
2025-04-06 4.653728 11.801227 25.230126 49.936115 91.388887 154.824466 255.071024
2025-04-13 3.570476 9.896905 22.489814 46.668949 88.608757 154.474501 260.800190
2025-04-20 3.167579 9.368008 22.231193 47.681926 92.855033 165.068150 283.335373
2025-04-27 2.939255 9.263205 22.917818 50.717864 101.141019 183.091175 319.111694
2025-05-04 2.573599 8.754788 22.747809 52.201054 106.969978 197.676581 350.525346
2025-05-11 2.220611 8.179952 22.340380 53.161025 111.907560 211.021166 380.519337
2025-05-18 1.850074 7.442820 21.450094 53.045959 114.857575 221.174416 405.785828
2025-05-25 1.485473 6.595343 20.152533 51.929256 115.831126 227.988202 425.853541
2025-06-01 1.232412 6.002877 19.348083 51.728764 118.459486 237.683967 450.950340
2025-06-08 0.909720 5.028556 17.392747 48.776579 115.518694 237.488414 459.505188
2025-06-15 0.807456 4.826772 17.417599 50.242631 121.345491 252.996627 495.053722
2025-06-22 0.647008 4.314377 16.491364 49.398253 122.440453 260.034000 516.363062
2025-06-29 0.602989 4.290325 16.955121 51.891517 130.519321 280.078471 560.755552
2025-07-06 0.426323 3.538730 15.100254 48.520384 126.110677 276.919249 564.586604